Discussion of "The Asymmetric Impact of COVID-19: A Novel Approach to Quantifying Financial Distress across Industries".

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis and the associated lockdown measures have exerted significantly adverse effects on corporate sectors globally. Archanskaia et al. (2023) provide a novel empirical strategy to timely assess corporate financial distress in the EU. The contribution is two-fold. First, this paper's notion of financial distress considers both the equity position and corporate indebtedness. Second, the methodology proposed in this paper allows the authors to estimate corporate financial distress in the EU at a highly granular level and link micro-level simulations to sectoral macroeconomic outcomes. The methodology employed by Archanskaia et al. (2023) consists of three steps. First, the authors apply a nowcasting model to acquire monthly industrial turnover data. Second, they feed the obtained monthly industrial turnover into a profit-generating process via an accounting identity to estimate monthly firm profits at the firm level. Third, the authors use the estimated firm profits with a snapshot of information on pre-existing liquid assets to deduce the firm-level liquidity needs and the depletion of equity through the focus period during COVID-19. These estimated results on firm equity position and indebtedness enable the authors to quantity corporate financial distress in the EU via various angles (e.g., country-level heterogeneity, industry heterogeneity, and the targeting of COVID support policies). The primary advantage of this approach is that it deals with large datasets at the granular level and produces firm-level results almost in real-time. Therefore, it can help policymaking track the effects of crises over time. However, one can quickly critique this three-step approach for its susceptibility to the usual Lucas critique. That said, since the objective here is to estimate firm-level financial distress, a large structural model being more or less aggregate in nature, though able to mitigate the Lucas critique concern, will encounter significant challenges in estimating firm-level results with the requisite level of granularity offered by the available data. Therefore, I broadly concur with the authors' position that 'the specific contribution of this paper consists in striking a better balance between the need to carry out a multi-country evaluation of the pandemic's effects on industrial activity in a strongly integrated region like the EU and the difficulty of capturing time, industry, and country variation in turnover with sufficient granularity.'

Risk of preterm birth in maternal influenza or SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Influenza is a major threat to global health and is an important cause of respiratory diseases. However, there was a controversy on the impacts of influenza infection on adverse pregnancy outcomes and the infant's health. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the impact of maternal influenza infection on preterm birth. Methods: Five databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for eligible studies on December 29, 2022. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the included quality of the included studies. As for the incidence of preterm birth, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled, and the results of the current meta-analysis were displayed in forest plots. Subgroup analyses based on similarity in different aspects were conducted for further analysis. A funnel plot was used to assess the publication bias. All of the above data analyses were performed using STATA SE 16.0 software. Results: A total of 24 studies involving 24,760,890 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Through the analysis, we found that maternal influenza infection significantly increased the risk of preterm birth (OR =1.52, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.97, I2=97.35%, P=0.00). After subgroup analysis based on different types of influenzas, we found that women infected with influenza A and B (OR =2.05, 95% CI: 1.26 to 3.32, I2=96.14%, P<0.1), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (OR =2.16, 95% CI: 1.75 to 2.66, I2=0.00%, P<0.1) in pregnancy were at an increased risk of preterm birth, while those infected with influenza A alone or seasonal influenza were not (P>0.1). Conclusions: Women should take active steps to avoid influenza infection during pregnancy, especially influenza A and B and SARS-CoV-2, to reduce the possibility of preterm birth.

Apatinib combined with camrelizumab in advanced acral melanoma patients: An open-label, single-arm phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: At present, immune monotherapy and combination therapy has not shown satisfactory effects on acral melanoma, and still no standard treatment is available for advanced acral melanoma. Here, a phase II trial was performed to explore the safety and efficacy of apatinib combined with camrelizumab in advanced acral melanoma patients as first-line therapy (NCT03955354). METHODS: Patients with pathologically confirmed, locally unresectable or metastatic treatment native acral melanoma received 250 mg apatinib once daily and camrelizumab 200 mg once every two weeks intravenously every 28-day cycle. The primary end-point was objective response rate and the secondary end-points were disease control rate, overall survival, progression-free survival and safety. RESULTS: Thirty patients were recruited between January 2015 and January 2022. Among them, 21 (70.0%) had stage IV, and a median tumour burden was 50 mm (range: 11-187). Objective response rate was 24.1%, and 7 of 29 patients had an anti-tumour response, including partial response (n = 5) and complete response (n = 2). Disease control rate was 82.8%, median progression-free survival was 7.39 months (confidence interval: 3.65-9.92), and median overall survival was 13.4 months (confidence interval: 1.9-25.0). Grade 3-4 treatment-related toxicity (grade 3 50.5%; grade 4 3.3%) included transaminase elevations, proteinuria, leukocytopenia, vomiting, diarrhea and drug-induced liver injury. No treatment-related mortality occurred. The mutations of TTN, MUC16, VPS13D, ALPK2 and SCUBE1 showed significant alterations with survival outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Apatinib combined with camrelizumab showed manageable safety profile and reasonable anti-tumour activity in advanced acral melanoma patients as first-line therapy.

Real-world effectiveness of primary series and booster doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron BA.2 variant infection in China: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: China has been using inactivated COVID-19 vaccines as primary series and booster doses to protect the population from severe to fatal COVID-19. We evaluated primary and booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Omicron BA.2 infection outcomes. METHODS: This was a 13-province retrospective cohort study of quarantined close contacts of BA.2-infected individuals. Outcomes were BA.2 infection, COVID-19 pneumonia or worse, and severe/critical COVID-19. Absolute VE was estimated by comparison with an unvaccinated group. RESULTS: There were 289,427 close-contacts ≥3 years old exposed to Omicron BA.2 cases; 31,831 turned nucleic-acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive during quarantine, 97.2% with mild or asymptomatic infection, 2.6% had COVID-19 pneumonia, and 0.15% had severe/critical COVID-19. None died. Adjusted VE against any infection was 17% for primary series and 22% when boosted. Primary series aVE in adults >18 years was 66% against pneumonia or worse infection and 91% against severe/critical COVID-19. Booster dose aVE was 74% against pneumonia or worse, and 93% against severe/critical COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Inactivated COVID-19 vaccines provided modest protection from infection, very good protection against pneumonia, and excellent protection against severe/critical COVID-19. Booster doses are necessary to provide strongest protection.

RMDisease V2.0: an updated database of genetic variants that affect RNA modifications with disease and trait implication.

Recent advances in epitranscriptomics have unveiled functional associations between RNA modifications (RMs) and multiple human diseases, but distinguishing the functional or disease-related single nucleotide variants (SNVs) from the majority of 'silent' variants remains a major challenge. We previously developed the RMDisease database for unveiling the association between genetic variants and RMs concerning human disease pathogenesis. In this work, we present RMDisease v2.0, an updated database with expanded coverage. Using deep learning models and from 873 819 experimentally validated RM sites, we identified a total of 1 366 252 RM-associated variants that may affect (add or remove an RM site) 16 different types of RNA modifications (m6A, m5C, m1A, m5U, Ψ, m6Am, m7G, A-to-I, ac4C, Am, Cm, Um, Gm, hm5C, D and f5C) in 20 organisms (human, mouse, rat, zebrafish, maize, fruit fly, yeast, fission yeast, Arabidopsis, rice, chicken, goat, sheep, pig, cow, rhesus monkey, tomato, chimpanzee, green monkey and SARS-CoV-2). Among them, 14 749 disease- and 2441 trait-associated genetic variants may function via the perturbation of epitranscriptomic markers. RMDisease v2.0 should serve as a useful resource for studying the genetic drivers of phenotypes that lie within the epitranscriptome layer circuitry, and is freely accessible at: www.rnamd.org/rmdisease2.

Effectiveness of vero cell inactivated vaccine against severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Sibu, Malaysia: A retrospective test-negative design.

The effectiveness of the vero cell inactivated vaccine (CoronaVac®) against severe acute respiratory infection ( SARI) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in the real world was assessed. A matched test-negative case-control design was employed using the web-based national information system, as well as the hospitalization dataset in Sibu Hospital. Vaccine effectiveness was measured by conditional logistic regression with adjustment for gender, underlying comorbidity, smoking status, and education level. Between 15 March and 30 September 2021, 838 eligible SARI patients were identified from the hospitalization records. Vaccine effectiveness was 42.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -28.3 to 74.1) for partial vaccination (after receiving the first dose to 14 days after receiving the second dose), and 76.5% (95% CI: 45.6 to 89.8) for complete vaccination (at 15 days or more after receiving the second dose). This analysis indicated that two doses of CoronaVac® vaccine provided efficacious protection against SARI caused by SARS-CoV-2 in the short term. However, the duration of protection, and performance against new variants need to be studied continuously.

Informative missingness: What can we learn from patterns in missing laboratory data in the electronic health record?

BACKGROUND: In electronic health records, patterns of missing laboratory test results could capture patients' course of disease as well as ​​reflect clinician's concerns or worries for possible conditions. These patterns are often understudied and overlooked. This study aims to identify informative patterns of missingness among laboratory data collected across 15 healthcare system sites in three countries for COVID-19 inpatients. METHODS: We collected and analyzed demographic, diagnosis, and laboratory data for 69,939 patients with positive COVID-19 PCR tests across three countries from 1 January 2020 through 30 September 2021. We analyzed missing laboratory measurements across sites, missingness stratification by demographic variables, temporal trends of missingness, correlations between labs based on missingness indicators over time, and clustering of groups of labs based on their missingness/ordering pattern. RESULTS: With these analyses, we identified mapping issues faced in seven out of 15 sites. We also identified nuances in data collection and variable definition for the various sites. Temporal trend analyses may support the use of laboratory test result missingness patterns in identifying severe COVID-19 patients. Lastly, using missingness patterns, we determined relationships between various labs that reflect clinical behaviors. CONCLUSION: In this work, we use computational approaches to relate missingness patterns to hospital treatment capacity and highlight the heterogeneity of looking at COVID-19 over time and at multiple sites, where there might be different phases, policies, etc. Changes in missingness could suggest a change in a patient's condition, and patterns of missingness among laboratory measurements could potentially identify clinical outcomes. This allows sites to consider missing data as informative to analyses and help researchers identify which sites are better poised to study particular questions.

Significant Stakeholders: Toward an Agile Knowledge Management System in the Time of Coronavirus Crisis

Effective crisis response requires sophisticated knowledge management in organizations. Agile systems development capabilities for such crisis response systems are important, particularly for purposes of tailoring a crisis-oriented knowledge management system to a rapidly shifting threat landscape. We propose an architecture for achieving both of these ends in the form of an Agile Crisis Management System involving three specific stakeholders, and we discuss the steps, outcomes, and implications of such a system.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome after SARS-CoV-2 infection on young adult population: International observational federated study based on electronic health records through the 4CE consortium.

PURPOSE: In young adults (18 to 49 years old), investigation of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been limited. We evaluated the risk factors and outcomes of ARDS following infection with SARS-CoV-2 in a young adult population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 1st, 2020 and February 28th, 2021 using patient-level electronic health records (EHR), across 241 United States hospitals and 43 European hospitals participating in the Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE). To identify the risk factors associated with ARDS, we compared young patients with and without ARDS through a federated analysis. We further compared the outcomes between young and old patients with ARDS. RESULTS: Among the 75,377 hospitalized patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR, 1001 young adults presented with ARDS (7.8% of young hospitalized adults). Their mortality rate at 90 days was 16.2% and they presented with a similar complication rate for infection than older adults with ARDS. Peptic ulcer disease, paralysis, obesity, congestive heart failure, valvular disease, diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease and liver disease were associated with a higher risk of ARDS. We described a high prevalence of obesity (53%), hypertension (38%- although not significantly associated with ARDS), and diabetes (32%). CONCLUSION: Trough an innovative method, a large international cohort study of young adults developing ARDS after SARS-CoV-2 infection has been gather. It demonstrated the poor outcomes of this population and associated risk factor.

Relative vaccine effectiveness against Delta and Omicron COVID-19 after homologous inactivated vaccine boosting: a retrospective cohort study.

ObjectiveTwo COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in Henan province in early 2022-one was a Delta variant outbreak and the other was an Omicron variant outbreak. COVID-19 vaccines used at the time of the outbreak were inactivated, 91.8%; protein subunit, 7.5%; and adenovirus5-vectored, 0.7% vaccines. The outbreaks provided an opportunity to evaluate variant-specific breakthrough infection rates and relative protective effectiveness of homologous inactivated COVID-19 vaccine booster doses against symptomatic infection and pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study METHODS: We evaluated relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) with a retrospective cohort study of close contacts of infected individuals using a time-dependent Cox regression model. Demographic and epidemiologic data were obtained from the local Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; clinical and laboratory data were obtained from COVID-19-designated hospitals. Vaccination histories were obtained from the national COVID-19 vaccination dataset. All data were linked by national identification number. RESULTS: Among 784 SARS-CoV-2 infections, 379 (48.3%) were caused by Delta and 405 (51.7%) were caused by Omicron, with breakthrough rates of 9.9% and 17.8%, respectively. Breakthrough rates among boosted individuals were 8.1% and 4.9%. Compared with subjects who received primary vaccination series ≥180 days before infection, Cox regression modelling showed that homologous inactivated booster vaccination was statistically significantly associated with protection from symptomatic infection caused by Omicron (rVE 59%; 95% CI 13% to 80%) and pneumonia caused by Delta (rVE 62%; 95% CI 34% to 77%) and Omicron (rVE 87%; 95% CI 3% to 98%). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination in China provided good protection against symptomatic COVID-19 and COVID-19 pneumonia caused by Delta and Omicron variants. Protection declined 6 months after primary series vaccination but was restored by homologous inactivated booster doses given 6 months after the primary series.

A case-case study on the effect of primary and booster immunization with China-produced COVID-19 vaccines on prevention of pneumonia and viral load among vaccinated persons infected by Delta and Omicron variants.

Using a three-prefecture, two-variant COVID-19 outbreak in Henan province in January 2022, we evaluated the associations of primary and booster immunization with China-produced COVID-19 vaccines and COVID-19 pneumonia and SARS-CoV-2 viral load among persons infected by Delta or Omicron variant. We obtained demographic, clinical, vaccination, and multiple Ct values of infections ≥3 years of age. Vaccination status was either primary series ≥180 days prior to infection; primary series <180 days prior to infection, or booster dose recipient. We used logistic regression to determine odds ratios (OR) of Delta and Omicron COVID-19 pneumonia by vaccination status. We analysed minimum Ct values by vaccination status, age, and variant. Of 826 eligible cases, 405 were Delta and 421 were Omicron cases; 48.9% of Delta and 19.0% of Omicron cases had COVID-19 pneumonia. Compared with full primary vaccination ≥180 days before infection, the aOR of pneumonia was 0.48 among those completing primary vaccination <180 days and 0.18 among booster recipients among these Delta infections. Among Omicron infections, the corresponding aOR was 0.34 among those completing primary vaccination <180 days. There were too few (ten) Omicron cases among booster dose recipients to calculate a reliable OR. There were no differences in minimum Ct values by vaccination status among the 356 Delta cases or 70 Omicron cases. COVID-19 pneumonia was less common among Omicron cases than Delta cases. Full primary vaccination reduced pneumonia effectively for 6 months; boosting six months after primary vaccination resulted in further reduction. We recommend accelerating the pace of booster dose administration.

Changes in laboratory value improvement and mortality rates over the course of the pandemic: an international retrospective cohort study of hospitalised patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE: To assess changes in international mortality rates and laboratory recovery rates during hospitalisation for patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 between the first wave (1 March to 30 June 2020) and the second wave (1 July 2020 to 31 January 2021) of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 83 178 hospitalised patients admitted between 7 days before or 14 days after PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within the Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by Electronic Health Record, an international multihealthcare system collaborative of 288 hospitals in the USA and Europe. The laboratory recovery rates and mortality rates over time were compared between the two waves of the pandemic. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality rate within 28 days after hospitalisation stratified by predicted low, medium and high mortality risk at baseline. The secondary outcome was the average rate of change in laboratory values during the first week of hospitalisation. RESULTS: Baseline Charlson Comorbidity Index and laboratory values at admission were not significantly different between the first and second waves. The improvement in laboratory values over time was faster in the second wave compared with the first. The average C reactive protein rate of change was -4.72 mg/dL vs -4.14 mg/dL per day (p=0.05). The mortality rates within each risk category significantly decreased over time, with the most substantial decrease in the high-risk group (42.3% in March-April 2020 vs 30.8% in November 2020 to January 2021, p<0.001) and a moderate decrease in the intermediate-risk group (21.5% in March-April 2020 vs 14.3% in November 2020 to January 2021, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Admission profiles of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection did not differ greatly between the first and second waves of the pandemic, but there were notable differences in laboratory improvement rates during hospitalisation. Mortality risks among patients with similar risk profiles decreased over the course of the pandemic. The improvement in laboratory values and mortality risk was consistent across multiple countries.

Efficacy of heterologous boosting against SARS-CoV-2 using a recombinant interferon-armed fusion protein vaccine (V-01): a randomized, double-blind and placebo-controlled phase III trial.

Waning of neutralizing titres along with decline of protection efficacy after the second dose of COVID-19 vaccines was observed, including China-made inactivated vaccines. Efficacy of a heterologous boosting using one dose of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 fusion protein vaccine (V-01) in inactivated vaccine-primed population was studied, aimed to restore the immunity. A randomized, double-blind and placebo-controlled phase III trial was conducted in healthy people aged 18 years or older in Pakistan and Malaysia. Each eligible participant received one dose of the V-01 vaccine developed by Livzon Mabpharm Inc. or placebo within the 3-6 months after the two-dose primary regimen, and was monitored for safety and efficacy. The primary endpoint was protection against confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 10,218 participants were randomly assigned to receive a vaccine or placebo. Virus-neutralizing antibodies were assessed in 419 participants. A dramatic increase (11.3-fold; 128.3-1452.8) of neutralizing titres was measured in the V-01 group at 14 days after the booster. Over two months of surveillance, vaccine efficacy was 47.8% (95%CI: 22.6-64.7) according to the intention-to-treat principle. The most common adverse events were transient, mild-to-moderate pain at the injection site, fever, headache, and fatigue. Serious adverse events occurred almost equally in V-01 (0.12%) and placebo (0.16%) groups. The heterologous boosting with the V-01 vaccine was safe and efficacious, which could elicit robust humoral immunity under the epidemic of the Omicron variant.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05096832.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Patterns of the COVID-19 Pandemic in China: An Empirical Study Based on 413 Cities or Regions.

The global economy was stagnant and even regressed since the outbreak of COVID-19. Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics and patterns of COVID-19 pandemic spread may contribute to more scientific and effective pandemic prevention and control. This paper attempts to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics in cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases, mortality, and cure rate in 413 Chinese cities or regions using the data officially disclosed by the government. The results showed that: (1) The pandemic development can be divided into five stages: early stage (sustained growth), early mid-stage (accelerated growth), mid-stage (rapid growth), late mid-stage (slow growth), and late-stage (stable disappearance); (2) the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases remained constant in Wuhan, whilst the mortality tended to rise faster from the early stage to the late-stage and the cure rate moved from the southeast to the northwest; (3) the three indicators mentioned above showed significant and positive spatial correlation. Moran's I curve demonstrated an inverted "V" trend in cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases; the mortality curve was generally flat; the cure rate curve tended to rise. There are apparent differences in the local spatial autocorrelation pattern of the three primary indicators.

Authorship Correction: International Changes in COVID-19 Clinical Trajectories Across 315 Hospitals and 6 Countries: Retrospective Cohort Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/31400.].

Research Progress in Anti-Inflammatory Bioactive Substances Derived from Marine Microorganisms, Sponges, Algae, and Corals.

Inflammation is the body's defense reaction in response to stimulations and is the basis of various physiological and pathological processes. However, chronic inflammation is undesirable and closely related to the occurrence and development of diseases. The ocean gives birth to unique and diverse bioactive substances, which have gained special attention and been a focus for anti-inflammatory drug development. So far, numerous promising bioactive substances have been obtained from various marine organisms such as marine bacteria and fungi, sponges, algae, and coral. This review covers 71 bioactive substances described during 2015-2020, including the structures (65 of which), species sources, evaluation models and anti-inflammatory activities of these substances. This review aims to provide some reference for the research progress of marine-organism-derived anti-inflammatory metabolites and give more research impetus for their conversion to novel anti-inflammatory drugs.

International Changes in COVID-19 Clinical Trajectories Across 315 Hospitals and 6 Countries: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have experienced 2 predominant waves of COVID-19-related hospitalizations. Comparing the clinical trajectories of patients hospitalized in separate waves of the pandemic enables further understanding of the evolving epidemiology, pathophysiology, and health care dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health record (EHR) data from patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections hospitalized in participating health care systems representing 315 hospitals across 6 countries. We compared hospitalization rates, severe COVID-19 risk, and mean laboratory values between patients hospitalized during the first and second waves of the pandemic. METHODS: Using a federated approach, each participating health care system extracted patient-level clinical data on their first and second wave cohorts and submitted aggregated data to the central site. Data quality control steps were adopted at the central site to correct for implausible values and harmonize units. Statistical analyses were performed by computing individual health care system effect sizes and synthesizing these using random effect meta-analyses to account for heterogeneity. We focused the laboratory analysis on C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, fibrinogen, procalcitonin, D-dimer, and creatinine based on their reported associations with severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Data were available for 79,613 patients, of which 32,467 were hospitalized in the first wave and 47,146 in the second wave. The prevalence of male patients and patients aged 50 to 69 years decreased significantly between the first and second waves. Patients hospitalized in the second wave had a 9.9% reduction in the risk of severe COVID-19 compared to patients hospitalized in the first wave (95% CI 8.5%-11.3%). Demographic subgroup analyses indicated that patients aged 26 to 49 years and 50 to 69 years; male and female patients; and black patients had significantly lower risk for severe disease in the second wave than in the first wave. At admission, the mean values of CRP were significantly lower in the second wave than in the first wave. On the seventh hospital day, the mean values of CRP, ferritin, fibrinogen, and procalcitonin were significantly lower in the second wave than in the first wave. In general, countries exhibited variable changes in laboratory testing rates from the first to the second wave. At admission, there was a significantly higher testing rate for D-dimer in France, Germany, and Spain. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized in the second wave were at significantly lower risk for severe COVID-19. This corresponded to mean laboratory values in the second wave that were more likely to be in typical physiological ranges on the seventh hospital day compared to the first wave. Our federated approach demonstrated the feasibility and power of harmonizing heterogeneous EHR data from multiple international health care systems to rapidly conduct large-scale studies to characterize how COVID-19 clinical trajectories evolve.

Banks, Money, and the Zero Lower Bound on Deposit Rates

We develop a New Keynesian model where all payments between agents require bank deposits, bank deposits are created through disbursement of bank loans, and banks face convex lending costs. At the zero lower bound on deposit rates (ZLBD), changes in policy rates affect activity through both real interest rates and banks’ net interest margins (NIMs). At empirically plausible credit supply elasticities, the Phillips curve is very flat at the ZLBD. This is because inflation increases NIMs, credit, deposits, and thereby output, while higher NIMs also dampen inflation by relaxing price setters’ credit rationing constraint. At the ZLBD, monetary policy has far larger effects on output relative to inflation, and inflation feedback rules stabilize output less effectively than rules that also respond to credit. For post-COVID-19 policy, this suggests urgency in returning inflation to targets, caution with negative policy rates, and a strong influence of credit conditions on rate setting.